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Information for headteachers about the pupil forecasting service provided by the development section.

The projection model

The pupil projection model is a system that produces annual projections of the number of pupils that are likely to attend each infant, junior, primary and secondary school for the next five to 10 years, based on current and previous trends.

Geographical information and database systems, along with data from the local health Authority, school census and admissions, produce data at school level that can be grouped into a number of areas such as ward, parish, planning districts, electoral, constituencies, multi-agency teams and learning communities, and produces invaluable data on pupil movements and trends.

The model has been shown to project pupil numbers within the audit commission guidelines of plus or minus 1% based on primary and secondary school phases.

Use of the data

Our development team use the pupil forecasting data for a variety of purposes e.g. to assist in setting priorities for future capital building projects, identifying potential re-organisations/mergers, agreeing section 106 contributions.

Our school finance section makes use of pupil forecasts in their preparation of current and future budgets for schools, identifying revenue and staffing requirements and potential issues to discuss with headteachers.

Internally, the data is made available to our elected members, senior officers, 14-19 planning and commissioning teams and the communications team.

Local boroughs and districts have access to the data for the preparation of their core strategy in order to identify areas for housing development.

The Department for Education (DfE) annual capacity return for all schools within Derbyshire is based on a combination of net capacity assessments and the pupil forecasting data.

School access to the data

All maintained schools can have access to their own pupil forecast data. For further advice and access to your own data, please contact James Bolton by email: james.bolton@derbyshire.gov.uk or tel: 01629 536538.

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